Spatial misalignment of micro-environmental hazards: how containers drive mosquito risk in New Orleans
Mosquito-borne risk in Gulf Coast cities is often attributed to broad environmental pressures, yet the extent to which parcel-level conditions drive standing water and larval habitats remains uncertain. This study analyzes environmental predictors of mosquito-relevant indicators across New Orleans using municipal inspection data from 951 residential parcels linked with district-level sociodemographic characteristics. Results show that while standing water was detected on 7.3% of parcels, larval habitats were rare (<1%), a pattern consistent with ecological expectations that only a small subset of water-holding sites support active mosquito development. Even with this low event frequency, container presence emerged as the dominant predictor of both outcomes, strongly associated with standing water (p < .001) and larval habitats (p < .05). Yard condition, property condition and water-feature maintenance showed no independent associations. More critically, district-level sociodemographic characteristics; income, racial composition and housing age were not significantly related to standing-water prevalence (all p > .10), revealing a mismatch between neighborhood-level structural disadvantage and the micro-environmental features that generate mosquito risk. The study contributes theoretically by demonstrating the primacy of micro-environmental variation, methodologically by integrating municipal inspections with multilevel modeling and practically by highlighting containers as the most actionable target for vector-control in New Orleans.